Microsoft's Surface Neo may be niche, but it's definitely not doomed to fail

With the upcoming Surface event on October 2, the usual chatter has sprung upwardly effectually what will be announced and whether information technology will be a success for Microsoft. Many are expecting the rumored dual-screen, foldable "Centaurus" device, which is looking likely equally role of the reveal.

I often meet comments about how any Microsoft announces, information technology won't survive because it volition be "niche." I've ever found this argument not only unconvincing merely simply weak logic. Here'due south why.

Niche is technology

Lenovo's forthcoming (2020) PC with a foldable display.

Before we get started, let's clear up the word "niche." In this context, it's a production for a specialized segment of the market place. The give-and-take itself is not a pejorative. Its connotation is a neutral descriptor. Specialized products can be successful, or they can fail for notwithstanding reasons that apply to mainstream products.

All new technology starts niche, including radios, TVs, smartphones, smartwatches, and virtual reality – fifty-fifty VHS recorders and windshield wipers. Part of that is just manufacturing and consumer education, only a lot of information technology is pushback from regular folks who say, "We don't need that," or "Why not merely practice X instead?" Or, my favorite, "What trouble does that solve?". So, eventually, the technology catches on, and mass adoption occurs.

I endemic a Palm Treo 650 in 2005, and I wasn't a businessman. That device was niche. Then, within 5 years of the first iPhone, smartphones went from obscure to virtually everyone owning ane.

The Palm Treo 650 - if you owned one, you lot endemic a very niche phone in 2005.

There is too a crossover between niche and the more than triumphant "early on adopter" banner that many people dearest to embrace. Here I especially think of biohackers.

But there's another kind of niche, too. It's one where the engineering never goes mainstream and is still a success. Anybody who is in a specialized field knows this. In movies, a 35mm film splicer was $500 and made by 1 company. The medical field is full of specialized, niche technologies that cost a fortune mostly because costs can't be subsidized by mass production.

Even for PCs, this is true. The recently announced Panasonic Toughbook 55 is niche; it'due south for police, EMT, war machine, and those who piece of work outdoors. Panasonic told me that this category of PC represents only one percent of the entire PC market, still the company owns 80 percent of that one per centum. Panasonic has been making these laptops since 1996, all the same many of yous accept never even touched one. Still, they're quite successful.

Expectations determine success

Microsoft's Panos Panay unveiling the very niche Surface Hub ii (2019).

When Neutaper set out to make a picture show splicer for projectionists and editors in 1963, the company didn't wait every household would ain one someday. They didn't have to. Their only markets were movie theaters and motion picture studios. For 50 years, it's all anyone used. They were a success.

Some things like the niche PC were pushed to go mainstream; information technology was Microsoft'south goal in the 1980s and 1990s to get a PC into every house. Eventually, we all had generally generic greyness boxes in our homes.

But in 2022, technology is abundant and easy to produce. Because of that, we can now accept things similar Kickstarter and Indiegogo to fund very specialized endeavors. You tin buy the most exquisite PCs and components to adjust your tastes. Do y'all want to make your RAM glow with RGB? No problem.

A niche foldable Surface would be just fine

Surface folding device fan render, by David Breyer.

All of this brings me back to Microsoft. The current expectation is nosotros will come across a dual-screen, foldable Surface tablet like the concept Microsoft Courier device from 2008. It will be a new category of computing – office PC, role tablet, role digital Moleskine notebook – and unlike annihilation we have on the market today. Inking and writing will be the primary interaction model.

Volition it compete with other Surfaces, iPad, your telephone? Is it a secondary device? Who knows? Who cares!

New categories of devices tend to take unexpected consequences. And of course, whatsoever Microsoft announces, it volition be niche. That's fine. How many of you bought a HoloLens, Surface Studio or Surface Hub? Those are still successful despite being niche. They brand millions for Microsoft.

Lenovo's experimental Yoga Volume C930 was very different.

One could argue the entire Surface line is niche, representing just 3.6 percent of the whole computer market place, according to Gartner enquiry. It also rakes in over 1 billion dollars per quarter in acquirement.

Surface is not meant to exist mainstream. The brand is intended to drive PC innovation and push the industry in specific directions, with the Surface line taking the lead (and initial risks). Microsoft pioneered the ii-in-i Surface Pro, a pattern that was met with ridicule, scorn and doubtfulness until about six months after Surface Pro 3 proved to be a striking. At present, every Apple iPad suddenly can dock a keyboard and pretend to be a Surface, as noted by The Verge recently.

Calling something niche is non an statement against its chances of success; it's just a description. There are successful niche products that remain forever obscure, and there are niche products that go along to be mainstream. Others neglect, only to come back later (OLED computer displays, for example).

Will Microsoft's dual-screen foldable Surface exist a success? I'thousand not even sure it will be useful. Trying to reach a decision about "Centaurus" today with so little knowledge is foolish.

Technology is not always about solving problems; information technology's also nigh creating new opportunities to do things we could not before. Where that takes us, no one knows. That's the fun part.

How to watch the Microsoft Surface event live stream on October 2

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